Saturday 27 May 2017

There was a flurry of excitement at the latest Red C poll which put support for Fianna Fail significantly lower than that shown in our own survey last weekend. One factor worth noting: in an effort to avoid the errors of UK pollsters who spectacularly failed to predict the Tory victory last May, Red C is now tinkering with its methodology to only include younger voters "most likely" to turn out, thus excluding many 18- to 24-year-olds, who, our evidence says, are turning towards FF. Who's right? Time will tell. But there'll be red faces at Red C if it turns out FF was indeed within striking distance of Fine Gael all along. Blame the margin of error, lads. That usually does the trick.

There was a flurry of excitement at the latest Red C poll which put support for Fianna Fail significantly lower than that shown in our own survey last weekend. One factor worth noting: in an effort to avoid the errors of UK pollsters who spectacularly failed to predict the Tory victory last May, Red C is now tinkering with its methodology to only include younger voters "most likely" to turn out, thus excluding many 18- to 24-year-olds, who, our evidence says, are turning towards FF. Who's right? Time will tell. But there'll be red faces at Red C if it turns out FF was indeed within striking distance of Fine Gael all along. Blame the margin of error, lads. That usually does the trick.

Sunday Independent

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