Teagasc used five different scenarios as the basis for its 2030 Foresight study. Although these five ideas are not predictions of the future, they are possible fictional 'futures' that may arise, based upon expert judgment. The process involved elements of imagination and creativity, but drew on available forecasts and predictions based in reality. By Caitriona Murphy

Scenario 1: The food island

We are now in the year 2030 where the food industry is pivotal to the economy of the country and Ireland is known as the 'food island'. Improved living conditions in China, Russia and Eastern Europe, global population growth and westernisation of diets have driven the food industry.

Consumers recognise the link between food and health and between inferior diets and major chronic diseases, such as obesity. Ireland is a world leader in producing foods for health.

The value of Ireland's dairy output has doubled and volume output has increased by 80pc.

Beef output has remained static and includes more beef from dairy herds. Specialised beef herds supply high-end beef cuts to UK and EU consumers, who identify Irish beef as a premium product. Over 400 small food companies have been established to cater for Irish consumers' preference for locally-produced food.

Scenario 2: Globally competitive farming

In 2030, commercial farming in Ireland is thriving to such an extent that Ireland is often called the 'farming island'.

Irish dairy farmers produce milk in Ireland and abroad, and we export milk and milk products, as well as management know-how and production skills.

Milk production has doubled and the milk has clinical properties for specialist high value-added markets.

Dairy cow numbers increased at the expense of suckler cows and sheep, and much of the beef industry depends on culled cows and male calves from the dairy herd.

Huge tillage farms grow 500,000ha of mainly animal feed, biomass crops and 'pharma' and 'feedstock' crops for the food, pharmaceutical and other industries. Climate change means grass now grows as well in the west and north of the country as it did in the south and east, while some parts of the south require expensive irrigation.

Scenario 3: Energy squeeze fuels agriculture

In 2030, we are in the post-peak oil era with conventional oil production declining steadily. The Chinese and Indian economic superpowers have accelerated the increase in global energy demand. Oil prices fluctuate at around $300 per barrel.

Agriculture is now centre stage in terms of global food and energy security.

With rising feed costs, grass-based Irish dairy farming has become more competitive. The number of dairy farmers has declined substantially, but cow numbers and milk solids output per cow have increased markedly. Tillage production has increased significantly to supply the home animal feed market, the food and drinks sector and to produce renewable energy and raw materials for the bio-industry sector.

The forestry/biomass sector has expanded rapidly. A well organised bio-energy supply chain and processing infrastructure has emerged.

The national suckler herd and sheep flock have declined for 20 years, but smaller Irish suckler beef and lamb industries are successfully marketing a premium 'green' product.

Scenario 4: European agriculture

The period from 2007 to 2017 saw repeated efforts to get agreement on a liberalised world trade. However, Europe did not sign up to such agreements and there is a distinctive European agriculture, characterised by protection from global markets; food safety; energy security; food security; traceability and biosecurity. Around 8pc of food is produced organically, while forestry has continued to grow steadily, aided by continuing EU payments.

A significant biomass energy enterprise now exists, focused around major urban centres, and milk production remains limited by quotas.

The beef sector is based on a large suckler herd run by mainly part-time farmers. Grain production has increased steadily, driven by European demand for biofuel production.

Around 40pc of EU funding to agriculture is devoted to rural development, to stem the continued problem of rural depopulation across Europe. Rural and coastal areas rely on delivering tourism and leisure services.

Scenario 5: Sustainable and rural

In 2030, we have made major progress in achieving the balance between sustainability (environmental) and the competitive production of food and energy, using natural resources.

Sustainability, climate change and environmental security have precedent as they are important political and economic driving forces at both Irish and global levels. The 2030 bioeconomy not only produces food, energy, bio-industrial products but also delivers a competitive range of agri-environmental products and services. These range from species conservation to landscape protection.

Rural Ireland in 2030 is a sustainable bio-economy that has maintained its contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) and now remains the preferred location for 45pc of the nation's 5.5m population and attracts 11m tourists annually.

- Caitriona Murphy