Just a couple of generations from now there will be a petrol or diesel allowance of just one litre/adult/ week. That's the grim forecast -- given here at the weekend -- from a world biofuel expert.

He told people at a conference in Dublin that by 2050 the one-litre-per-adult rule will apply. Frightening stuff.

There is, however, some hope. We may have at least a range of alternatives by then. But we have to start pushing hard.

Producing biofuels here is a 'no brainer', the conference was told, but we need to urgently expand our horizons as petrol and diesel resources expire.

We have to develop our ability and resources to make more sustainable biofuels, the Green Power forum was told.

The man to put a figure on how little oil will be left by 2050 was Anders Fredriksson, of Sekab, the leading Swedish biofuel company.

At the same conference, Teagasc expert Bernard Rice said he believed biofuels are, and will be, an important outlet for maintaining cereal production here.

The biofuel researcher highlighted the need to develop a biomass resource as soon as possible. Mr Rice said we need a first generation biofuel capability to pave the way for a second wave.

Act together

As things stand, he said, the way we produce the fuels does not involve any land use, and represents excellent use of existing resources while being "good on CO2".

But we need to get our act together to push on with development, the conference heard.

The forum was hosted by the Irish Motoring Writers' Association and sponsored by Continental Tyres.

The idea of biofuels has taken a hammering lately because food crops are being cashed in as fuel crops -- in a world where millions are starving.

But according to Mr Fredriksson, this 'food versus fuel' standoff can be significantly resolved. He gave the example of only 200,000ha of land being needed to fuel Sweden's car population with cellulosic biofuel, for example. This would be in tandem with electric hybrid vehicles.

To provide a global supply, he calculated that the land needed would come to 60 million hectares. Yes, it is a lot but he said Brazil could supply half of that amount without even touching their rainforests.

And Africa offers a viable source for the remainder, he claimed.

After coming up with the frightening statistic of one litre/adult, he was quite optimistic about the ability of biofuel to partially solve the fuel shortage. He reckoned we will have a viable biofuel 'holy grail' within six years.

What is this holy grail?

It is a combination of low carbon soils and the use of biomass and ethanol-powered harvesting techniques.

Huge headache

His assessment of our current plight is obvious but bears repeating: We have a huge headache posed by dwindling oil reserves, rising emissions and increasing populations.

Mr Fredriksson warned: "It's overwhelming, and requires a paradigm shift. The poorest stand to suffer most in the shake-up."

He should have a good grasp of what's what, given that his company is the largest provider of biofuels in northern Europe. It is also pushing out the technology frontiers in developing the next generation of cellulose-based ethanol. And it currently has the world's first biofuel officially verified as sustainable on the basis of CO2 and social impacts.

Sweden has set quite a pace on biofuels and we have a lot to learn from them.

At the moment, 30pc of cars bought there are FlexiFuel Vehicles (FFVs). These account for the top four selling models on the market. Nine-in-10 FFV drivers fill up primarily with bioethanol.

Mr Fredriksson said if Sweden can do it, so can any other country.

He gave Ireland as an example of some progress where a good number of FFVs -- eg Ford Focus FFV, Saab 9-3 Biopower and Volvo S40 Biopower -- have been bought.

It's interesting, too, that he has forecast the current surge in diesel sales will peak as imminent EU directives will begin to limit it.

Policymakers from state bodies, local authorities, universities and representatives from the car and alternative energy sectors were at the forum. It was chaired by RTE's Rodney Rice.

A subsequent panel discussion involved contributions from Oxfam's policy and advocacy coordinator, Colin Roche, Ford of Europe's Norbert Krüger and Noel McMullan from the Maxol group.

Continental Tyres chief, Paddy Murphy, said reducing CO2 emissions was a challenge shared by all in the car industry.

It appears to have been a worthwhile forum and one which, I think, shows there is a role in Irish agriculture for a biofuel business.

It just needs to be better thought out and encouraged.

- Eddie Cunningham