Business World

Tuesday 24 January 2017

Oil plunges 10pc as weak growth and rate fears hit markets

Matthew Robinson

Published 06/05/2011 | 05:00

OIL plunged nearly 10pc yesterday, heading for the biggest daily drop in dollar terms since the 2008 financial crisis, as concerns about economic growth and monetary tightening clobbered commodities.

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Bearish economic signals came from data in Europe and the US, adding to concerns that have battered commodities markets all week. German industrial orders fell unexpectedly in March while US weekly jobless claims hit eight-month highs.

World stocks fell and the 19-commodity Reuters-Jefferies CRB index traded down 3.7pc and was off 7pc on the week so far, heading for its biggest weekly decline since December 2008.

"The longer-term bull cycle is still in place, but this correction may have a lifespan of several months, as weaker economic data is fuelling this correction to a large part," said Sterling Smith, senior analyst for Country Hedging in Minnesota.

Brent

Brent crude futures for June traded down $8 to $113.19 a barrel, the fourth straight day of losses, smashing below the 50-day moving average as the sell-off picked up steam after prices dropped below $120 a barrel.

Brent was headed for its biggest one-day percentage loss since April 2009 and the largest four day drop since May 2010.

US crude fell $7.36 to $101.88 a barrel. Trade levels surged, with volumes for Brent up 70pc over the the 30-day moving average and 63pc over the 250-day average in afternoon activity. US crude volume was 23pc over the 30-day average.

The disruption of oil exports from Libya, concerns about the supply impact of unrest in the Middle East and Africa, and the weaker dollar have sent crude to the highest level since 2008, with Brent topping $127 a barrel this year and US crude over $114 a barrel.

Selling pressure on oil and other commodities came on several fronts this week, with investors weighing factors from the death of Osama bin Laden to the impact of higher fuel and commodity costs on the economies of consumer nations to monetary policy in major economies.

Sharply

"Crude oil is selling off sharply for two primary reasons: QE2 is coming to an end in June and without a QE3 behind it, it will take liquidity out of the market, hurting risky asset classes such as commodities," said Chris Jarvis, senior analyst, Caprock Risk Management in New Hampshire.

"With Osama bin Laden dead, the market is adjusting the geopolitical risk premium down accordingly. Given this, speculative money is being taking off the table."

India's central bank raised rates more than expected on Tuesday, and expectations that No 2 oil consumer China could take similar actions helped push down prices on Wednesday.

The euro headed for its biggest slide against the dollar since November after the European Central Bank hinted interest that rates were unlikely to rise next month, short-circuiting a rally that had driven the currency to a 17-month high.

Irish Independent

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