Friday 28 April 2017

Markets react well to Trump's shock win as construction and healthcare stock are buoyed by result

“Trump is talking about the potential for $3 trillion of infrastructure spending in the United States, so that’s on bridges and roads as well as defence spending,” said Brian Flavin, senior analyst with Goodbody Wealth Management.
“Trump is talking about the potential for $3 trillion of infrastructure spending in the United States, so that’s on bridges and roads as well as defence spending,” said Brian Flavin, senior analyst with Goodbody Wealth Management.
Samantha McCaughren

Samantha McCaughren

Several Irish stocks may benefit from the Trump presidency, with companies in the areas of construction and healthcare among those expected to prosper under his policies.

CRH has already been given a lift by investors expecting Trump to spend on infrastructure, with global insulation company Kingspan also likely to benefit in the coming months and years.

"Trump is talking about the potential for $3 trillion of infrastructure spending in the United States, so that's on bridges and roads as well as defence spending," said Brian Flavin, senior analyst with Goodbody Wealth Management.

"You've seen all those stocks exposed to construction, engineering, defence move up strongly on the back of that and CRH is flying at the moment."

However, Flavin believes the markets may be 'running ahead of themselves'. As yet, there is no clarity on exactly what form Trump's policies will take. "He has to go to Congress and get their approval. There may be a Republican majority in both the houses, but it still takes time."

There is also no guarantee that Republicans will support Trump. For example, Paul Ryan, current Speaker of the US House of Representatives, does not favour increasing the US deficit. "If Trump's policies mean increasing debt, that may be a problem for some Republicans," said Flavin.

In any case, it would take some considerable time for new spending plans to be passed.

Healthcare stock has rebounded as there had been fears that Hillary Clinton would push through price controls on drugs if elected. However, Trump has not expressed any such concerns and, traditionally, Republicans are against price controls.

Financial stocks have also performed well in the wake of the election as Trump and the Republicans generally favour less regulation rather than more.

"The recovery in the markets has been quite remarkable," said Flavin. "But what the markets need to see now is who he actually appoints to his administration. We also need some clarity around his tax reform issues," he said.

Dr Owen O'Brien, business lecturer at University College Cork, said that he believes Trump's policies will be positive for the US, which could have a positive knock-on effect on the world economy.

However, he raised concerns about Foreign Direct Investment if corporate taxes in the US are reduced. This would be bad for Ireland.

"The whole idea that you can just import industry and commerce into a country endlessly is an unsustainable model," he said. "We have to start creating our own industry and employment."

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