Sunday 25 September 2016

China's factory activity contracts at fastest pace in April

Published 23/04/2015 | 08:08

A man walks past the People's Bank of China HQ in Beijing Picture:Tomohiro Ohsumi
A man walks past the People's Bank of China HQ in Beijing Picture:Tomohiro Ohsumi

China's factory activity contracted at its fastest pace in a year in April, a private survey showed, suggesting that economic conditions are still deteriorating despite increasingly aggressive policy easing by the central bank.

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The flash HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 in April, below the 50-point level that separates growth in activity from a contraction on a monthly basis.

After a brief rebound in February, the index has now been back in negative territory for two consecutive months.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 49.6, equal to March's final reading.

The sharp decline in employment witnessed in March moderated somewhat and export orders rose for the first time in three months, but most of the news was bad.

New orders declined further to a one-year low of 49.2 from March's 49.8, pointing to softer domestic demand.

Meanwhile, declines in input and output prices, which had appeared to moderate in March, showed signs of accelerating again, signaling intensifying deflationary pressures which are a key worry for policymakers.

The weak PMI adds to a growing number of signs that China's economy is decelerating more rapidly than most analysts had expected, and perhaps some policymakers as well.

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March money supply and industrial production year-on-year growth both came in at or near multi-year lows, with the latter posting its worst performance since the global financial crisis.

Economists have cautioned that some of the extreme weakness in March may be a reflection of the very late Lunar New Year celebrations in 2015, which distort year-on-year comparisons based on the western calendar. Many factories and offices shut for lengthy periods during the holidays.

But the continuing weakness in the April flash PMI adds to evidence that the world's second-largest economy is still slowing.

Particularly worrying from a policymaking perspective are renewed signs of rapidly falling prices. The Chinese government and central bank have closely studied lessons from neighboring Japan, Asia's former dynamo whose policy mis-steps plunged it into decades of deflation from which it is still struggling to escape.

Weighed down by a cooling property market, industrial overcapacity and local debt, China's economy grew 7.4 percent in 2014, its slowest expansion in 24 years. Economists expect growth to cool further to 7 percent in 2015, even with additional stimulus measures.

The central bank has cut interest rates twice since November, on top of a raft of other monetary and fiscal measures announced over the past year, most recently a 100 basis point cut to banks' required reserve ratios early this week.

More such support measures are seen in coming months, with the central bank expected to embark on its boldest easing campaign since the depths of the global financial crisis.

"Although momentum appears to have weakened recently we don’t see a reason to be overly concerned," said Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics in Singapore.

"Monday’s cut to the required reserve ratio will have come too late to have much impact on today’s reading but should help shore up activity over the coming months and we also expect policymakers to roll out more support measures to ensure that growth doesn’t slip much further."

Reuters

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