Tuesday 27 September 2016

Mobiles, VR and ever more blokes: 12 trends that are set to dominate tech in the next 12 months

Published 21/01/2016 | 02:30

Virtual reality will continue to soar in 2016.
Virtual reality will continue to soar in 2016.

What will happen in the year ahead? Here are 12 predictions, from gigabit broadband to female participation in the workforce, that Deloitte Global has published in its latest Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions report.

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1 Phone data, not calls: About 26pc of smartphone users in developed markets are expected to not make any traditional phone calls in a given week in 2016. These individuals have not stopped communicating, but are rather substituting traditional voice calls for a combination of messaging including SMS, voice and video services delivered 'over the top'.

2 Photo sharing: In 2016, 2.5 trillion photos are expected to be shared or stored online, a 15pc increase on the prior year. Over 90pc of these photos will likely have been taken with a smartphone.

3 €15.7bn used smartphone market: In 2016 consumers are expected to sell outright or trade in 120m used smartphones, generating more than €15.7bn for their owners. This is up from the 80m smartphones traded in 2015 with a value of €10bn. 10pc of premium smartphones (€462 or higher) purchased new in 2016 will end up having three or more owners before being retired.

4 Mobile ad-blockers: Only 0.3pc of all mobile device owners are expected to use an ad-blocker by the end of 2016, which will impact less than €92m (or 0.1pc) of the €64bn mobile advertising market.

5 Mobile games less lucrative: In 2016, mobile will become the leading games platform by software revenue, expected to generate €32bn in revenue, up 20pct from 2015. This compares to expected revenues of €29.5bn for PC games and €26bn for console games, up only five and six per cent respectively from the previous year.

6 The mobile online checkout: Use of third party touch-based payment services to make a purchase on a mobile device will increase by 150pc to reach 50m regular users in 2016.

7 Trailing millennials love laptops: 'Trailing millennials' (those 18 to 24 years old) are anticipated to be the most pro-PC of all age groups of 2016. Our 18 to 24-year-olds see smartphones and PCs as complements, not substitutes, which may in part be due to the decreased costs of laptops.

8 Cognitive technologies: In 2016, more than 80 of the world's 100 biggest software companies will have integrated 'cognitive technologies' such as machine learning, natural language processing, or speech recognition, into their products. This is a 25pc increase from 2015 when 64 of the top 100 had products with such cognitive technologies.

9 eSports: eSports will generate global revenues of €461m in 2016, up 25pc from about €369m in 2015, and will have an audience of regular and occasional viewers of close to 150m people. This is only a fraction of league revenues in major sports such as football €28bn.

10 The Gigabit Internet age: The number of gigabit per second (Gbit/s) Internet connections is expected to surge to 10m by year-end, a tenfold increase of which about 70pc will likely be residential connections.

11 VR to soar: There will be estimated sales of about 2.5m VR headsets and 10m game copies with about €645m in hardware sales and the remainder from content. The majority of spending on VR will be by core users rather than casual gamers.

12 Fewer women: By the end of 2016 fewer than 25pc of information technology (IT) jobs in developed countries are expected to be held by women. This figure is about the same as 2015 and may be down.

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