Friday 23 June 2017

Ask the experts: Is there a danger of another property bubble forming, as some are claiming?

Pat Davitt, CEO of IPAV
Pat Davitt, CEO of IPAV
Claire Solon, President, Society of Chartered Surveyors. Iain White/Fennell Photography
Michael Grehan, managing director, Sherry FitzGerald
Marian McQuillan, Ceo of Quillsen
Keith Lowe CEO Douglas Newman Good

Pat Davitt

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Pat Davitt, CEO of IPAV
 

Some commentators have been talking about this since 2013. Eventually they will be right. There was no sign of a bubble in 2013 and it's still not in evidence now. Properties fell by 60pc from 2007 to 2013. To get back to where they were, prices would have to increase by 120pc. Some have increased by 40pc to 50pc, a long way off where they were in 2006.

Pat Davitt is the CEO of the Institute of Professional Auctioneers and Valuers (IPAV). Pat has more than 34 years' experience in the sector, spending much of it running a family-based auctioneering firm in Mullingar.

Claire Solon

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Claire Solon, President, Society of Chartered Surveyors. Iain White/Fennell Photography
 

I doubt that it will, but if a bubble forms, it will be principally to do with too much demand for too little supply and may be specific to certain locations. It won't be a credit-fuelled one, as we previously experienced.

Claire Solon is president of the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland, with 5,000 members in the property sector, and head of property at Friends First, where she manages €500m of property assets.

Keith Lowe

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Keith Lowe CEO Douglas Newman Good
 

As property prices still remain over 40pc below their peak levels back in 2006, I do not believe that a property bubble is emerging. The definition of a property bubble is where property prices are at a level over market value for a prolonged period of time. This is simply not the case at this juncture of the market cycle.

Keith Lowe is CEO of Douglas Newman Good, which has 75 offices throughout the country. He has 32 years' experience in the sector, having joined the firm in 1984.

Michael Grehan

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Michael Grehan, managing director, Sherry FitzGerald
 

We are way beyond saying something will never happen again. Having said that, there is currently a supply crisis leading to soaring rents and the potential for greater price increases and the knock-on social implications. The future supply of credit and new homes will be more controlled and managed, thus reducing the risk of returning to bubble territory.

Michael Grehan s the managing director of the Sherry FitzGerald estate agency group, which has a 66-branch-strong network including franchises. He has more than 27 years' experience in the sector.

Marian McQuillan

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Marian McQuillan, Ceo of Quillsen
 

We think it unlikely that another bubble will form in the short to medium term. There is more prudent lending in place now compared to 10 years ago. Although the deposit requirement has been reduced to 10pc for first-time buyers, it is still necessary to meet the 3.5-times-salary requirement. This, in our opinion, is central in avoiding another bubble. The Central Bank is continuing to monitor activity and is ready to tweak the rules if there is any sign of another bubble.

Marian McQuillan is the CEO of Quillsen, formerly Gunne Estate Agents, and was formerly a director of Purcell McQuillan Tax Partners.

Irish Independent


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