The Independent

Friday, November 20 2009

Irish

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You'd better watch out: how safe is your job?

After one of the worst weeks for job losses ever, more redundancies appear on the cards. Where will the axe fall next, asks Louise McBride

Sunday November 02 2008

A THREE-pronged attack is not easy to take on the chin. And the attack -- a burst property bubble, the first recession in 25 years and an explosive stock market -- has already claimed thousands of Irish casualties.

About 80,000 people have lost their jobs over the last year and the same number could be lost next year, according to the State training agency FAS. And some workers are more likely to fall than others.

HIGH-STREET BANKS: 2,000 jobs to go

Last month, six banks -- AIB, Anglo Irish Bank, Bank of Ireland, EBS Building Society, Irish Life & Permanent and Irish Nationwide Building Society -- signed up to the State's €400bn guarantee scheme.

A year or two ago, had you mentioned to the 25,000 or so people who work for those six banks that their employer would be turning to the Government for a dig-out, they would have no doubt laughed all the way to the bank. No more.

And while the bail-out scheme has eased some nerves, it could also trigger a spate of bank mergers -- which would inevitably lead to job losses in the banks.

"The new guarantee scheme has clearly identified that there is a need for consolidation in the Irish banking market," said Larry Broderick, general secretary of the Irish Bank Officials Association (IBOA), a trade union for bank employees. "The Government has put down a strong marker that it may force shotgun weddings. There's no doubt that we could see thousands of job losses -- perhaps about 2,000 -- if there's consolidation in the sector. The issue of job security -- which was never a major issue before for the banking industry -- is now a priority issue."

Mr Broderick believes that AIB and Bank of Ireland are unlikely to be taken over, leaving the other banks covered by the guarantee -- EBS, Irish Nationwide, IL&P and Anglo -- as prime takeover fodder.

The future of workers in the foreign-owned Irish banks is also under threat.

"With the British government capitalising its banks, there's a big question mark over the Irish operations of British banks," said Mr Broderick. "British banks may start to re-examine their role in Ireland. With the British government looking to be repaid very quickly, you could find the British banks selling off their Irish outlets to repay capital injection by the British or foreign governments."

Ulster Bank, for example, could be worth about €1bn in a few years time -- a sum unlikely to be sneezed at by its British parent, Royal Bank of Scotland, if it becomes under pressure to stump up cash. Similarly, the British bank, Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS) could raise money by selling off its Halifax operations in Ireland.

It could take some time before we see any attrition of the bank's permanent workforce. In the meantime, however, temporary staff will feel the squeeze.

"Each bank is trying to function as a business as usual but profits will be down on last year," said Mr Broderick.

"Therefore, over the next two to three months, chances are that temporary staff will be let go, agency staff won't see their contracts being renewed, overtime will be cut and promotions will not be filled."

IFSC UNCERTAINTY: 100 next month

Once known as the microcosm of the Celtic Tiger, Dublin's International Financial Services Centre (IFSC) is in increasingly shaky territory.

The IFSC, which employs about 10,000 people, was once fertile ground for companies eager to cash in on the wealth of the high net-worth individuals so abundant during the property boom.

Investment bankers, investment managers, capital market players, treasury divisions, stockbrokers and hedge fund administrators have thrived there. But with investment banks dropping like flies across the world as they crumbled under the pressure of the credit crunch -- where banks stopped lending to each other to protect themselves from a mortgage crisis in the US -- bankers are now returning to traditional banking.

The specialist and 'risky' banking that thrived in the IFSC has had its heyday -- so the shutters are bound to come down on many operations there. The hedge fund administration giant, Citco, for example, which was set up in the IFSC almost 10 years ago, told about 100 Dublin workers last week that they would lose their jobs over the next month.

"The IFSC has to be under huge scrutiny," said Mr Broderick. "Some of the banks down there are in trouble internationally, so they're under a lot of pressure."

At a conference run by the Irish Banking Federation (IBF) last month, Aidan Brady, the country corporate officer with Citi Ireland, which is part of the financial giant, Citigroup, warned there could be a "significant decrease in activity and employment in the IFSC". In his presentation, Mr Brady said the IFSC was "too reliant on the funds business" and that "IFSC providers may disappear due to changing business models".

Pat Farrell, chief executive of the IBF, said the IFSC was unlikely to be left unscathed from the turmoil in world markets. "Many of the parents of the IFSC players are involved in consolidation," said Mr Farrell. "That will play itself out in the IFSC."

MULTINATIONALS: 'several hundred'

Tens of thousands of Irish people depend on multinationals for their weekly wage.

They may be heavyweights, but like the Wall Street financial giants that have almost or completely collapsed over the last year, they are not immune to the global slowdown.

"There will be more job losses among Irish multinationals because of the need to survive this unprecedented period," said Terence McCrann, who leads the employment law group with corporate law firm McCann Fitzgerald. "The employment costs of these multinationals simply won't be sustainable."

Dell confirmed last week that it was to axe several hundred temporary workers in Limerick.

PROPERTY EMPIRE: 70,000 face the axe

Construction companies have been in the eye of the storm for some time now.

About 255,000 people work in construction today -- almost 30,000 less than February 2007, according to the latest statistics from the Central Statistics Office (CSO). The construction sector has, therefore, taken the brunt of the job losses over the last year. With the output from the building and construction industry set to fall by about 29 per cent next year, it will continue to do so. Last month, the Construction Industry Federation warned that 70,000 builders could lose their job in the sector next year -- 50,000 in residential construction and 20,000 in commercial property.

"While job losses first came to light in the construction sector, a ripple effect continued," said Dick Woulfe, partner with employment law firm Mason Hayes and Curran. "Big building contractors had redundancies, then sub-contractors started to lay people off, then electrical engineer sub-contractors, concrete manufacturers, town planners, architectors and solicitors with large conveyancing units. A lot of employers that have contacted us have never contacted us before."

OTHERS IN THE LINE OF FIRE:

Redundancies are running 35 per cent ahead of last year, with 23,545 redundancies in the first eight months.

Mr McCrann has seen the number of requests for redundancy and litigation advice from companies double over the past year. "In more buoyant times, people who were laid off could still go to good jobs," said Mr McCrann. "Today, there are more disputes around dismissals, so there's been a big jump in the number of companies looking for advice on litigation."

Last September, over 4,000 people were made redundant -- 1,146 of these were builders and civil engineers. About 850 people were made redundant in engineering and manufacturing that month, there were 146 redundancies in banking, finance and insurance, and 210 redundancies in transport and communications.

Hauliers are likely to be hit with a spate of job losses when the New Year dawns.

"The transport sector is already under huge pressure," said Mr Woulfe. "In the past, there's been massive growth in the amount of goods being transported. But with the slowdown, not as many goods are being transported so there will have to be job losses. Big companies will have to cut down their numbers and many private operators will go out of business."

With second-hand car sales plummeting, car dealers are under pressure. Large accountancy firms that beefed up their staff during the boom to cater for flourishing construction companies will have to let people go. The public sector and civil -- once immune to any threat of job losses -- now has voluntary redundancies on the cards. If public finances continue to deteriorate, "the Government may have to contemplate compulsory redundancies", said Mr McCrann.

Companies built up around the Celtic Tiger, including mortgage brokers, estate agents, auctioneers, stockbrokers, surveyors, hotels and restaurants, are in for a tough year. Many of these, such as Sherry Fitzgerald and Davy, have already laid off staff.

"Over the last few years, there was a greater proportion of income available for luxury items -- weekends away in hotels, eating out in restaurants and so on," said Joe O'Toole, general secretary with SIPTU. "The services sector is vulnerable to the downturn in the economy."

Some organisations are facing redundancies for the first time, particularly new companies which have grown and developed around the Celtic Tiger, added Mr McCrann. "A lot of these companies had nothing but growth and recruitment problems [as they couldn't find enough staff] in the last five to 10 years," said Mr McCrann. "They recruited very expensively during the boom times."

How the tables have turned.