Business Irish

Tuesday 27 September 2016

Sterling slips as Brexit wary BoE keeps rates unchanged

Marianna Aragao

Published 15/04/2016 | 02:30

The pound is the worst-performing Group-of-10 currency this year, dropping about 4pc versus the dollar. Photo: Bloomberg
The pound is the worst-performing Group-of-10 currency this year, dropping about 4pc versus the dollar. Photo: Bloomberg

Sterling weakened for the first time in five days versus the euro and fell for a second day against the dollar as the Bank of England held its key rate at a record low and minutes showed officials considered the implications of the UK leaving the European Union in making its decision.

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The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee, led by Mark Carney, voted unanimously to keep the benchmark rate at 0.5pc. That followed the voting pattern of the previous two monthly policy meetings. All 44 economists in a Bloomberg survey predicted the rate would be left unchanged, where it's been since March 2009.

The pound is the worst-performing Group-of-10 currency this year, dropping about 4pc versus the dollar, amid concern that Britain will vote to leave the EU in a June 23 referendum.

The International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast for the nation and warned of "severe" damage to the world economy if Brexit happens. A report yesterday showed a gauge of UK house prices unexpectedly dropped to a nine-month low in March.

"No central bank seems in the mood to rock the boat at the moment," said Stuart Bennett, London-based head of G-10 currency strategy at Banco Santander. BOE officials "just need a little more time to be certain about inflation and growth outlook," said Bennett, who sees the central bank raising rates "sooner than the market thinks."

The pound dropped 0.4pc to $1.4144 as of 4:05pm London time yesterday, extending Wednesday's 0.5pc decline.

Sterling weakened 0.3pc to 79.64 pence per euro, having touched 79.25 on Wednesday, the strongest level in more than a week.

With the June EU vote approaching and inflation well below the BOE's 2pc target, traders are more bearish about the pound over the next year than any of its G-10 peers, options prices suggest. The net cost of three-month contracts hedging against sterling losses increased this week to 4.79pc points, the most since Bloomberg began compiling the risk-reversals data in 2003.

The BOE benchmark rate has been at a record low for seven years, and while economists see an increase in the first quarter of 2017, investors are much more pessimistic and have even been pricing in the chance of a cut. (Bloomberg)

Irish Independent

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