Thursday 29 September 2016

Jobs figures, FBD results and central bankers

Published 16/11/2015 | 02:30

There was an annual increase in employment of 3pc, or 57,100, in the second quarter, bringing the total in work to 1.96 million
There was an annual increase in employment of 3pc, or 57,100, in the second quarter, bringing the total in work to 1.96 million

Unemployment data due out this week for the third quarter is expected to show the numbers out of work are continuing to fall.

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Budget 2016 included an estimate that the jobless rate would average around 9.5pc this year and there is little evidence to suggest that this won't be met.

There was an annual increase in employment of 3pc, or 57,100, in the second quarter, bringing the total in work to 1.96 million.

Analysts expect a rise in employment of over 50,000 in the June to September period.

"There was an average increase in the numbers at work last year of 32,800 and employment prospects look good again in 2015 due to the strong economic recovery, with a net increase in jobs of around 51,000 now forecast," said Alan McQuaid, Merrion Stockbrokers. "As regards the third quarter, we are looking for an annual rise of 55,000."

Other than unemployment, the coming days are relatively quiet on the economic front, but results from insurer FBD and building materials seller CRH will be closely watched.

An increasingly robust recovery in the US should be good for CRH. For FBD, investors will be looking for any signs of recovery following a rough 18 months and guidance around actions taken by new chief executive Fiona Muldoon to steady the ship after this year's capital raising.

Elsewhere, the outgoing deputy governor of the Central Bank, Stefan Gerlach, is due to address the Central Bank of Ireland Workshop on 'Banking, Credit and macro-prudential policy: what can we learn from micro-data?' today. Expect a defence of mortgage lending caps.

His boss, the also outgoing Patrick Honohan, will speak at the London School of Economics tomorrow evening.

Elsewhere, data from the US out this week is likely to show that cheap fuel, a strong dollar and retail discounting probably kept US consumer prices little changed in October from a year ago as inflation remains well below the 2pc goal of Federal Reserve policy makers.

Japan, Indonesia and South Africa set interest rates.

Today, data from Japan is expected to show that the world's third largest economy barely shrank in the third quarter after contracting at a 0.3pc rate in the previous three months.

President Barack Obama jets off to the four-day Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Manila.

Philippine President Benigno Aquino gives the keynote speech to APEC attendees including leaders of nations that are part of the US-backed Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement.

Today also sees Euro Finance Week kick off in Frankfurt. The annual gathering of central bankers, financiers, regulators and politicians features speakers including European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and Vice President Vitor Constancio, Deutsche Bank co-CEO Juergen Fitschen, Deutsche Boerse CEO Carsten Kengeter, Bafin President Felix Hufeld and UBS Chairman Axel Weber.

The US House of Representatives is tentatively scheduled to vote this week on a measure that would cap the pay of chief executive officers at mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Irish Independent

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