Bright spark leading the way
Interview Climate ambassador John Ashton
John Ashton: 'This is as big a political challenge as any we have ever faced'
As EU leaders, at their spring summit starting today, discuss how to save the world from warming, they might consider the question of the lightbulbs.
The best, most efficient, low-emission bulbs are made in China, in a joint venture with electronic giant Philips. But because they are made outside the EU, they attract a large tariff, making them unattractive to consumers.
Talk, in other words, is cheap. Actions can be difficult and unpopular. The point is made by John Ashton, one of Britain's "climate ambassadors", who was appointed by then Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett to help apply international diplomacy with action on global warming, in the wake of the influential Stern report.
Mr Ashton has a double qualification for the job, being a rare example of a professional diplomat with a science degree. He was an advisor to the last Hong Kong governor, Chris Patten, and later formed E3G, a "change agency", which has brokered deals on climate and energy between developed and developing countries.
He does not go in for diplomatic niceties when it comes to climate change, arguing that the threat it poses to countries' futures is on a par with the gravest security dangers, or even full-scale war.
"This is as big a political challenge as any we have ever faced," says Ashton, who spoke at the Irish Government's major Energy Forum in Dublin last week. "How do we, in a generation, build a low carbon global economy?"
How is, of course, one of the problems. Many people, including leading politicians and economists, believe it is impossible; or else would cost so much that it would be better just to cope with the effects of global warming.
The Stern report, after immense research, disagreed with that pessimistic conclusion. "The economic costs are affordable. If we get things right, the costs are bearable."
On the other hand there was some jibbing from EU governments, including Ireland's, over the costs of the commission proposals now being discussed at the summit. The package proposes a 21pc reduction by 2020 in carbon emissions from sectors covered by the EU Emissions Trading System, plus national targets for other emissions. The cost was put at €60bn a year, or 1pc of the Union's GDP.
"That is one cost: we also need to look at the cost of failing to make the transition to a low-carbon economy," says Ashton. "The Stern report showed that the costs of failure are much higher than the costs of action. Failure costs are on a par with the two World Wars or the Great Depression and pose a threat to both prosperity and national security."
The British government hopes that this kind of argument will get the international community moving seriously on climate change. But Ashton accepts that it will not happen unless voters are persuaded to bear the costs in return for the benefits seen flowing in future.
"The first thing is to build public confidence in our ability to do it, among voters and others," he says. "If you look at Germany, in my view Chancellor Merkel is ahead of the game, but manufacturing interests are often very conservative."
A change in business and financial sentiment may be one of the key drivers. "The corporate sector is saying to the politicians that it needs early, predictable policies in making its decisions. We are already seeing on Wall Street that they are nervous about whether they should finance new coal-fired power stations or not."
Voters will need to be convinced that burdens are shared fairly between consumers, taxpayers and shareholders. "Unless we can convince people that this is compatible with jobs growth, it won't be politically practical. It cannot be done on the basis of austerity policies. People will not vote for that."
Which is where the tariff on the lightbulbs come in. Protectionist attitudes also see the EU and the US putting huge duties on energy-efficient Brazilian ethanol, so that their farmers can grow bio-fuel crops of dubious value.
"There are quite a lot of misguided policies in place around the world," Ashton agrees. "The debate on bio-fuels is not finished. We need to be much more careful that we are getting real carbon benefits, while not undermining food security, or damaging other parts of the environment."
One difficulty in persuading the public to take its share of the burden is the widespread belief that the growth of China and India, and the apparent indifference of the US, mean that everyone else is wasting their time -- albeit not their energy -- in cutting their own emissions. Ashton argues that the emerging economies have their own good reasons for wanting to improve their emissions ratios, and that things are changing fast in the US.
"Nobody is more conscious of the need for low carbon growth than the Chinese leadership. No economy is more vulnerable than theirs. The low-lying land on the east coast and the big river deltas, where the modern economy is concentrated, would face catastrophe from a significant rise in sea levels.
Dangerous
"As for the US, like any huge country, it is always dangerous to see it as a monolith. California has the eighth biggest economy in the world and has probably done more than anywhere else to advance the environmental agenda."
He also sees a major shift in US attitudes over the past 18 months. "I think policies at the federal level will be very different one or two years from now."
He sees an opportunity for Europe; to be a first-mover, set an example, develop global policies and reap the benefits of technical leadership. "The big problem for Europe is that it underestimates its own strength and ability to persuade and show example.
"This process has to be part of globalisation and Europe has more experience than anyone in managing the stresses of cross-border economies."
The Taoiseach told the forum that Ireland was determined to give leadership, but the question may be asked why a small country, which can make no difference to global warming whatever it does, should do more than the bare minimum.
"Ireland has far more influence than it might think," says Ashton. "Its economic success makes Ireland a reference point for others and the positions it takes have enormous resonance in the US. China, the US and others need to understand that we mean business."
- Brendan Keenan
