Saturday 3 December 2016

Investec predicts economy will grow by more than 6pc this year

Paul O'Donoghue

Published 24/09/2015 | 07:12

Investec's latest economic forecast is good news for Finance Minister Michael Noonan
Investec's latest economic forecast is good news for Finance Minister Michael Noonan

Financial firm Investec has significantly upped its growth estimate for the Irish economy for the year to 6.1pc from a previous forecast of 4pc.

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In its latest quarterly Irish Economy Monitor, the company said that its previous forecasts for GDP, of growth of 4pc this year, followed by a further 3.7pc in 2016, were "too light".

"Having reviewed the recent data, we move our forecasts to growth of 6.1pc in 2015 and 5pc next year," the company said. It also forecast GNP growth of 6.5pc this year and 5.2pc next year.

The company said that its reasons for upgrading its forecast included recent figures which show that GDP expanded by 7pc in the first half of the year and growth in all three PMI indicators (construction, manufacturing and services).

It added: "The upturn is also contributing to a marked strengthening in the public finances, with the general government deficit now expected to come in at only 1.4pc of GDP this year. We previously pencilled in 2.1pc.

"We now foresee gross general government debt falling to a five year low of 102.5pc of GDP by year-end. [It] was 106.7pc. Adjusting for the government’s valuable stakes in the banking sector and expected windfalls from both IBRC and NAMA pushes the public debt ratio below 100pc".

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