Commercial property outlook 'worst in world'
Ireland was ranked worst in the world for property prices. Sean Dwyer/Bloomberg
THE outlook for Irish commercial property values is the worst in the world, according to a new global survey.
Almost 100pc of respondents expect Irish property prices to fall in the fourth quarter of the year for shops, offices and warehousing units.
The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors Q3 global commercial property survey is based on the views among members of the profession in Ireland, the UK and around the world.
There were negative views on 35 of the world's markets. In contrast there were positive views on 11 markets with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) attracting a 40pc positive view.
It had a slightly less pessimistic view of Ireland's outlook on rents compared to prices.
While 50pc expect Irish commercial rents to fall in the fourth quarter, this is below the expectations for UK and US, where around 60pc expect rents to fall.
Pessimistic
Over 70pc of respondents are pessimistic about rents in Hong Kong and India.
Furthermore, the outlook for Ireland shows a slight improvement compared to the third-quarter rents, which attracted a minus 70pc ranking -- making them the worst in the world. New Zealand was the second worst.
Ireland was also ranked worst in the world for property prices in the third quarter, a position it shared with Slovakia. In contrast Brazil was ranked best according to 65pc of respondents followed by the UAE and Nigeria.
Economist Patrick Koucheravy, of agents CBRE, said he was not surprised at the negative sentiment towards Irish prices.
"The survey partly reflects the increasingly negative international sentiment towards Irish commercial property resulting from the small scale of the market, the lack of international investor presence, and the relatively high rate of stamp duty prevailing up to last month," he added.
However, he disputed the survey's findings on rents. "Our own surveys show that office rents are the only prime property sector to show a fall and that was down by only 4pc in the last quarter.
"There has been no decline in prime retail and industrial rents," he added.
Within western Europe, Germany is seen as being the most positive in terms of future rents, reflecting concerns about a shortage of space.
It is the second most positive location in terms of future development.
- Donal Buckley Commercial Property Editor
