Monday 24 October 2016

China crisis could slow the Eurozone's pick-up - ECB

Frank Siebelt

Published 14/08/2015 | 02:30

A man walks past yuan signs at a currency exchange in Hong Kong. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu
A man walks past yuan signs at a currency exchange in Hong Kong. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu

Volatility in Chinese markets may have more impact than expected on the Eurozone's fragile economy, and an increase in US interest rates might also slow its recovery, the European Central Bank said in the minutes of its last meeting.

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Economic recovery in the 19-member Eurozone was moderate and gradual, a trend the ECB called "disappointing".

Real GDP remained near 2008 levels, while the US economy has rebounded significantly, the ECB said in the minutes, released yesterday.

The risk that growth would be slower that forecast remained, it said. Chief economist Peter Praet, a member of the executive board, noted that the ECB needed to continue communicating that it was ready to use all its instruments given the "challenging environment".

"In particular, financial developments in China could have a larger-than-expected adverse impact, given this country's prominent role in global trade," the ECB said. "This risk could be compounded by negative knock-on effects from interest rate increases in the United States on growth in EMEs (emerging market economies)."

The Shanghai stock market fell by more than 20pc in the month before the ECB's July 15-16 meeting, and China's growth outlook has appeared to erode further in recent days.

The Chinese currency has weakened around 4pc in the past few days, and economic growth is expected to slow from 7.4pc in 2014 to 7pc this year, its slowest pace in a quarter of a century. Weak exports, sluggish domestic demand and a cooling property market are all weighing on the economy.

Even as China struggled and European growth remained sluggish, the US Federal Reserve was expected to raise interest rates as soon as September. Analysts expect the Bank of England to follow suit in the following months.

Assessing its €60bn-a-month asset-buying scheme, the ECB said the programme was on track and the inflation outlook was consistent with its medium-term target of close to 2pc. But the ECB added that it needed to see through the programme, which is set to run until at least September 2016. Early data appear to indicate that the asset purchases are making an impact, but falling prices for commodities like oil and iron ore, along with China's economic slowdown, have increased talk that the ECB may need to do more to get prices up.

The five-year swap rate, one of the bank's favourite indicators for long-term inflation expectations, has been falling steadily for the past month.

It dropped to 1.5pc after soaring to 2pc in the spring when the bank launched its quantitative easing programme. (Reuters)

Irish Independent

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