Monday 26 September 2016

The price of Brexit: Noonan warns of €3bn loss to Ireland

Referendum on a knife-edge in latest polls

Kevin Doyle and Colm Kelpie

Published 22/06/2016 | 02:30

Michael Noonan, Paschal Donohoe, and Eoghan Murphy launch the Summer Economic Statement. Photo: Tom Burke
Michael Noonan, Paschal Donohoe, and Eoghan Murphy launch the Summer Economic Statement. Photo: Tom Burke

A Brexit could cost the Irish economy between €2.5bn and just over €3bn over the next two years, potentially wiping out the room for tax cuts and extra spending.

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Finance Minister Michael Noonan has attempted to play down the risk to the future budgets here, saying the reduction in growth would be "containable".

A woman walking past EU referendum posters - by the pro-Remain group, We Are Europe - depicting Donald Trump kissing Brexit advocate Boris Johnson, in Finsbury Park, London. Yui Mok/PA Wire
A woman walking past EU referendum posters - by the pro-Remain group, We Are Europe - depicting Donald Trump kissing Brexit advocate Boris Johnson, in Finsbury Park, London. Yui Mok/PA Wire
A Vote leave supporter wears a vote leave badge as she waits for Ukip Leader Nigel Farage to arrive in Clacton-on-Sea in Essex for Brexit campaigning ahead of the EU referendum vote on Thursday June 23. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Picture date: Tuesday June 21, 2016. See PA story POLITICS EU Farage. Photo credit should read: Nick Ansell/PA Wire
Embargoed to 0001 Wednesday June 22 File photo dated 25/02/10 of the 'Gherkin' and Canary Wharf at sunrise in London, as the city is becoming cheaper for expatriate workers to live in as "Brexit fears" fuel a slump in the pound, according to a global report. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Issue date: Wednesday June 22, 2016. It has slipped from 12th to 17th in the annual study by Mercer of the most expensive cities around the world. See PA story MONEY Cities. Photo credit should read: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire
File photo dated 14/10/14 of For Sale signs as a vote to leave the EU could prompt more foreign investors to pile into the housing market to snap up "Brexit bargains", according to estate agents. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Issue date: Wednesday June 22, 2016. London-based estate agents Stirling Ackroyd said recent volatility in the pound and a dip in London property values have already made house prices in the capital appear cheaper for foreign investors in recent months. See PA story POLITICS EU Property. Photo credit should read: Andrew Matthews/PA Wire
File photos of the Barclays and Lloyds Banking Group logos, as Britain's biggest banks are drafting in staff to work through the night on Thursday as they gear up for the EU referendum result, amid fears a Brexit could send shockwaves through financial markets. PA Wire
Russian President Vladimir Putin (2nd right) meeting with heads of international news agencies at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, Russia. Clive Marshall/PA Wire
Carmakers and soccer chiefs threw their weight behind the campaign for Britain to stay in the European Union June 20, 2016, as opinion polls showing the "Remain" camp gaining ground buoyed shares and sterling three days ahead of the referendum. REUTERS/Mal Langsdon/File Photo
A woman reads a newspaper on the underground in London with a 'vote remain' advert for the BREXIT referendum, Britain June 22, 2016. REUTERS/Russell Boyce
Simeon Simeonov, a Bulgarian car washer, poses for a photograph in Weybridge, Britain June 16, 2016. "They're thinking like in the last century," His main fear about a Brexit is that it might stop them from continuing their education at a local British state school. Picture taken June 16, 2016. REUTERS/Peter Nicholls
File photo shows the close-up detail of the cover of a European Union British passport pictured in Paris, France, REUTERS/Mal Langsdon/File Photo
A woman reads a newspaper on the underground in London with a 'vote remain' advert for the BREXIT referendum, Britain June 22, 2016. REUTERS/Russell Boyce
An activist against British exit from the European Union poses for the media with the EU flag painted on her face, in front of Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, Germany, June 19, 2016. REUTERS/Hannibal Hanschke
Boris Johnson reads a newspaper on a plane from Southend to East Midlands for a final day of campaigning around the country on behalf of Vote Leave before tomorrow's EU Referendum. Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire
File photo dated 18/05/16 of the front page of The Sun newspaper dated Wednesday 9 March, 2016, whose 'Queen backs Brexit' headline was inaccurate, the Independent Press Standards Organisation (IPSO) ruled, one of the most significant events in the EU referendum campaign.The Sun/PA Wire
File photo dated 4/3/2015 of Sir Richard Branson, who has warned that Brexit would be "devastating" for the long-term prosperity of the UK. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Issue date: Monday June 20, 2016. Dominic Lipinski/PA Wire

However, working off analysis compiled by the UK Treasury and a British government think tank, the Department of Finance estimates a 'Leave' vote could cost Ireland up to €3bn between 2017 and 2018.

This is more than the €2.2bn the minister has predicted will be available to increase spending and tax cuts during this period.

The admission comes as Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin criticised the Government's lack of a 'Plan B' for a Brexit.

Taoiseach Enda Kenny said he does not want to set out a strategy suggesting the Government believes Britain will vote to leave.

Latest polls put the result on a knife-edge.

Irish Independent

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